Credit culture

Americans and the "Lake Wobegone Effect"

“Where the women are strong, the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average.”

- Garrison Keillor

According to the Federal Reserve’s G-19 statistical release, revolving credit (which consists primarily of credit card debt) rose at an annualized rate of almost 6.8% in June of 2008, and 7.6% in May. Retail sales (as measured by the Department of Commerce) have also increased each month thus far in 2008, with the exception of May and June, in which they held essentially steady. If auto sales are taken out of the mix, retail numbers for both months would have been up 1% or more.

What does this mean? People are spending less on automobiles in reaction to the escalating price of gasoline, but discretionary spending in almost every other category is either steady or increasing. Part of this increase can be attributed to the effects of the distribution of government stimulus checks in this time period, but much of the ongoing increase in these numbers is probably due to more permanent factors.

Are people cutting back on spending as much as the press would lead you to believe? These numbers indicate that this is probably not the case. How can this be so with all of the “doom and gloom” media coverage about the economy in the last few months?

This is likely due in part to the fact that the last several decades have seen a rise in the “credit culture” in which societal mores have changed from debt aversion to a reliance on debt. Freer lending standards and increasing property values obviously contributed, but some of the reasons for this are more basic.

Over-confidence

For instance, Americans tend to score much higher on optimism scales than other countries do. In one survey of drivers, 80% rated themselves to be in the top 30% of all drivers, with some drivers obviously overestimating their driving skills. Eight in ten (81%) new business owners think their business has at least a 70% chance of succeeding, but only 39% think a business similar to theirs is likely to succeed.

According to a creditcards.com survey conducted June of 2007, over 90% of respondents believe that they have the same amount or less debt than the average American. In other words, they are over-estimating their own situation or capabilities in relation to other members of their reference group – the most important determinant humans use to guide behavior. Confidence is a positive trait and helps to bolster self-esteem, but the over-confidence evidenced here can lead to distorted financial decision-making.

Time is money

The expression “time is money” is a very western concept. Many other cultures do not look at time in the same way Europeans and Americans do. For instance, money is not something to be “spent” or “wasted”. This means that the way that we look at time is culturally specific, rather than universal.

This leads to another difference between Americans and other cultures, which can help to explain Americans lack of aversion to using credit. Americans tend to have shorter than average time horizons. In other words, on average we think in terms of a shorter period in to the future than other cultures, i.e. the consequences of our actions are factored into our decision making process for a much shorter period of time. Researchers theorize this is because we are a newer culture than others, but the end result is that we have less of a tendency to not only disregard negative consequences (overconfidence), but also to discount the domino effect that theses actions will have on our situation in the more distant future (short time horizon). Both of these factors can be used to rationalize the choice to live on credit now, and ignore the long-term consequences of that decision.

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